Spring Hill voter

A Spring Hill resident casts their vote at the Winchester Community Building during the last city elections.

 Alexander Willis

Since March 19, the early voting period for the 2021 Spring Hill city election has seen a total of 969 voters cast their ballots as of March 30.

According to a methodology devised by Alderman Matt Fitterer, which takes into account the average number of daily votes cast so far, this election is projected to have a total voter turnout rate of 7.88 percent.

voter projections

Alderman Matt Fitterer's latest projections anticipate there being 2,642 total voters this election for a 7.88% voter turnout rate.

Methodology

To calculate the projected total voter turnout rate, Fitterer calculates the average daily vote count and multiplies that figure by the amount of days remaining in the early voting period. As each day of early voting sees a different number of ballots cast, the projected total turnout is updated on a daily basis.

That number is then multiplied by a figure of two to account for Election Day voting, which typically sees numbers equal to those seen during the entirety of early voting. While no estimation can be perfect, Fitterer's projection gives  a rough idea of how voters are turning out to the polls.

Reaching 8 percent

While a higher voter turnout rate is always desirable, reaching an 8 percent voter turnout rate this election holds significance due to a bet made by Mayor Rick Graham with Spring Hill citizens.

Graham pledged that if voter turnout rate were to reach 8 percent this election, he, Police Chief Don Brite and Fire Chief Terry Hood would all take a pie to the face at the steps of City Hall.

While the current projection still lands just shy of 8 percent, given that voters still have until this Saturday to participate in early voting, as well as the have the opportunity to vote on election day, reaching 8 percent is still entirely possible.

Voting turnout rates in Spring Hill city elections have gotten progressively worse over the years; in 2017, 7.72 percent of registered voters participated, and in 2019, just 5.67 percent of registered voters participated. Were this election to see a voter turnout rate of higher than 8 percent, it would mark a significant turnaround for the city's future prospects regarding voter participation.

For comparison, Spring Hill's neighboring cities of Brentwood and Franklin saw their most recent elections reach 12.82 percent and 9.18 percent voter turnout rates, respectively.

Early voting is still underway, and will be open from 8 a.m.-4 p.m. Monday-Friday, and 8 a.m. to noon on Saturdays at the Winchester Community Building at 563 Maury Hill Street. Early voting will be closed April 2 in observance of Good Friday.

Early voting will conclude on April 3, with Election Day landing on April 8.

Click here to see if you're registered to vote, and click here to see full profiles of all the candidates.